Bill Burton: It is time for us to take a look at the Science Behind the Forecast as I am joined by WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.
Tawana Andrew: Good morning. Today, we're talking about one of the most interesting seasons that we have on our planet.
BB: Well, it is June, and that means it is the beginning of hurricane season, something we never really look forward to, but it comes around every year anyway. What do we need to know?
TA: So, for this season, NOAA is forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season. They're predicting about 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 of those are expected to become hurricanes, and three to five of those are expected to become major hurricanes. So category three and up. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes. So, that is slightly above average from what we typically expect, which is exactly what we saw last year, by the way. For hurricane to form, we need a couple of conditions. We need a pre-existing weather disturbance. We need low wind shear, which is a change in wind speed or direction as you climb in altitude, a sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees over a depth of 150 feet, and an area of thunderstorms. And we are seeing some of that already showing up as we're kicking off the month of June. There are a couple of particular factors that they are looking at for this hurricane season that they're thinking will contribute to above-normal activity. We have ongoing and ENSO neutral conditions, warmer ocean temperatures, pretty weak wind shear and the potential for increased activity from the West African monsoon. So, first, I know a lot of people are like, what is ENSO neutral conditions? Right?
BB: That was my first question.
TA: So, ENSO or the El Nino Southern Oscillation, because, once again, meteorologists are so great at naming things. So, you have ENSO or the El Nino Southern Oscillation, that is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific near the equator. It fluctuates irregularly every two to seven years, and the changes in ocean temperatures in this part of the world create fluctuations in global wind and rainfall patterns. Typically, we have either an El Nino or La Nina. But right now, we are in neither of those categories. So, basically that means that we are not above average or below average in terms of temperatures in that part of the world. In the ocean, we're in a Goldilocks territory, you could say. Typically, El Nino leads to decreased tropical activity in the Atlantic basin, because you usually have stronger trade winds, a lot more wind shear and a lot more atmospheric instability. So, El Nino, you don't see as many hurricanes. However, with La Nina, you usually end up with more hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, in the Caribbean Sea, but now that we're in neutral territory, it's more of a free for all.
BB: That does not sound good.
TA: Yeah, let's see how things evolve as the year goes along, because there's nothing really leaning one way or the other.
BB: There are so many moving parts when it comes to the development of a hurricane, but now we have a better understanding of what to expect, thanks to this edition of Science Behind the Forecast with WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Thanks for the knowledge, Tawana.
TA: Of course.
This transcript was edited for clarity
