This transcript was edited for clarity and length.
Bill Burton: It's time for us to take a look at the Science Behind the Forecast as I'm joined by WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.
Tawana Andrew: Good morning. We're now wrapping up fall, and we're getting into winter, and those winter temperatures are something that we're continuing to keep an eye on.
BB: Usually when you think about winter, you think cold, cold and colder. But it's actually getting warmer during the winter, isn't it?
TA: Yeah, it is. We know that meteorological winter lasts from December through February. And that is actually warming faster than any other season in the United States. Looking ahead to the winter months, because we still have some time before we get there, it's still expected that the La Niña in the Pacific is going to last through the winter. That means, for us in the U.S., that we're looking at more of a warmer-than-normal season for parts of the south and eastern United States. While areas further to the north are looking at a wetter-than-average scenario for them, which is typical when you have a La Niña in place. And we are right on the border of everything. So we get a mixture of the two.
BB: Lovely. We get all the slop.
TA: We just get everything. And while the northern U.S. has seen the most dramatic warming trend, the Great Lakes and the Northeast have seen the most drastic and rapid warming for the winter months since 1970. On average, those areas see 16 more warmer than normal days compared to what they were seeing in 1970.
You know me: I love data. I love numbers. I looked at one study that analyzed temperatures in 244 U.S. cities, and found that 98% of those cities have seen their average number of warmer than normal days increase in the last 50 years.
BB: That's a pretty overwhelming percentage.
TA: Last time I looked at this data, last year, it was 95%. So we have seen that number definitely jump. And in those cities, the average temperature has climbed by 3.9 degrees Fahrenheit. Here in the Ohio Valley, we see average winter temperatures that are about 4.4 degrees higher. And in Louisville, looking at our data, we're seeing an additional 16 winter days with above average temperatures, and our average winter temperature in Louisville has risen by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
BB: Wow. That's a lot warmer.
TA: That is a lot warmer. I looked back at what I was seeing last year with this same data, and through the 2023 numbers, it was only a 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit increase and 15 more days. We're just seeing a slight uptick there. But of course, if that trend continues, then in a decade, this is going to be a very different story.
BB: Yeah, it's not a good trend.
TA: Not a good trend to see at all, especially if you really like snow. That's not really what you want to see at all, right? Nighttime temperatures as well have also been getting warmer across the country, the average amount of sub freezing nights across the US has dropped. In Louisville, we now see on average, 25 fewer nights of below-freezing temperatures compared to what we saw in 1970.
BB: Wow. That's nearly a month.
TA: Thinking that meteorological winter lasts three months, that's a third of that.
BB: So warmer winters really are a thing. Maybe not extremely warm, but getting warmer and warmer year after year. Now we understand why this is happening thanks to this edition of Science Behind the Forecast with WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Thanks for the knowledge, Tawana.
TA: Of course.
