© 2022 Louisville Public Media

Public Files:
89.3 WFPL · 90.5 WUOL-FM · 91.9 WFPK

For assistance accessing our public files, please contact info@lpm.org or call 502-814-6500
89.3 WFPL News | 90.5 WUOL Classical 91.9 WFPK Music | KyCIR Investigations
Play Live Radio
Next Up:
Available On Air Stations

5 Laws Of Political Gravity In Midterms. Do They Still Apply In The Age Of Trump?


The 2018 election cycle has officially begun, with the first primaries being held in Texas on Tuesday.

In every campaign cycle, analysts look at the fundamentals — the political laws of gravity that, in the past, have influenced elections. In 2016, Donald Trump seemed to defy a lot of these laws, and Republicans are hoping they can do the same this year to prevent the hit the party in power usually takes at this point in a president's first midterm.

Here are five laws of political gravity to watch as the 2018 campaign plays out:

1. When a president's approval rating is below 50 percent, his party doesn't fare well at all

Historically, parties that hold the White House lose seats in midterms — even more when they also have complete control of Congress, and even more when the president's approval rating is under 50 percent.

Jonese Franklin is the WFPL Program Director and host of All Things Considered. Email Jonese at jfranklin@lpm.org.